Likelihood Ratio-Based Tests for Markov Regime Switching

Modified Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching

This paper proposes a modified quasi-likelihood test of Markov regime switching models. Despite its popularity in economics and finance, there are few papers that develop tests for regime switching models. Recently, Cho and White (2007) derive the asymptotic distribution of the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic of Markov regime switching models with a scalar parameter. The asymptotic distr...

Likelihood-ratio tests for hidden Markov models.

We consider hidden Markov models as a versatile class of models for weakly dependent random phenomena. The topic of the present paper is likelihood-ratio testing for hidden Markov models, and we show that, under appropriate conditions, the standard asymptotic theory of likelihood-ratio tests is valid. Such tests are crucial in the specification of multivariate Gaussian hidden Markov models, whi...

Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests

We investigate the power and size performance of unit root tests when the true data generating process undergoes Markov regime-switching. All tests, including those robust to a single break in trend growth rate, have very low power against a process with a Markov-switching trend growth rate as in Lam (1990). However, for the case of business cycle non-linearities, unit root tests are very power...

Markov Regime-Switching Tests: Asymptotic Critical Values

Empirical research with Markov regime-switching models often requires the researcher not only to estimate the model but also to test for the presence of more than one regime. Despite the need for both estimation and testing, methods of estimation are better understood than are methods of testing. We bridge this gap by explaining, in detail, how to apply the newest results in the theory of regim...

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